Last week brought a rare exhale. Trump pulled back — at least temporarily — on his threat to demolish Iran's power plants and bridges, buying the region a two-week window that passes, charitably, for breathing room. It's fragile, it's uncertain, and nobody should be scheduling a peace dividend just yet.

But whether this "ceasefire" holds or quietly unravels, the bigger story isn't what happens next week — it's what this conflict is cementing for the long term. The near-term stagflationary hit looks increasingly baked in for 2025. What's less discussed is the longer arc: a world that's deglobalising faster, carrying more geopolitical risk, tolerating bigger government, and facing structural inflation pressures that won't politely disappear when the headlines move on.

The war may pause. The trends it's accelerating won't.

Read full article from Dr Shane Oliver here

Rick Maggi, Westmount Financial, Financial Advisor - Perth