The US economy is yet again reinventing itself. this has been helped along by a determination to get the US economy moving again after the Global Financial Crisis, but the real drivers are an energy boom, a manufacturing renaissance and American innovation. Read on Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders is almost always a treat to read, even if you don't own any shares of Berkshire Hathaway. It's eminently readable, and he usually throws in some evergreen personal advice that anyone can use. This year is no exception, based on an exclusive excerpt just published by Forbes magazine.
In the letter, Buffett tells the story of two investments made more than two decades ago: a 400-acre farm outside Omaha and a commercial building in Manhattan. The farm is now worth more than five times what he paid. And he says the Manhattan investment produces annual income equal to more than a third of the initial investment.
His secret? He focused on the fundamentals of what the investments would produce, not on their fluctuating value. The real estate property, for instance, was adjacent to New York University, which he notes "wasn't going anywhere."
"Games are won by players who focus on the playing field -- not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard," writes Buffett. "If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays."
Buffett says that for "the nonprofessional" (that's the rest of us), there's no need to be picking winners in the stock market, or hiring someone else to do it either. And you should definitely ignore people on TV who try to predict broader market conditions. A low-cost index fund, which captures a wide enough cross section of businesses, should be plenty. And he reveals that he's following his own advice in his will (emphasis added):
My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I've laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife's benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire Hathaway shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organisations over the 10 years following the closing of my estate.) My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard's.) I believe the trust's long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors -- whether pension funds, institutions, or individuals.
So there it is. You don't need much more than a portfolio of well diversified index funds (like Vanguard's) along with the right exposure to various assets, which depends on your personal attitude towards risk, volatility and reward. Of course, the lesson from Buffett and others is that ordinary investing doesn't need to be complicated. In fact, if it's not simple, you're doing it wrong.
As most Westmount clients are already taking advantage of 'indexing' and have seen the results first hand, Buffett's comments should come as no surprise, but it's reassuring to know that you're in good company! Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Today the All Ordinaries Index closed at its highest level since 19 June 2008 as Australian company earnings continue to impress, but also following a strong lead from Wall St overnight.
Interestingly, investors have been dismissing disappointing US economic data of late, pointing to harsh winter weather as a reason for unexpected weakness. Instead, investors have been taking a relatively optimistic view, positioning themselves for an improving growth trend in the US, betting that improved earnings will be enough to lift the market further this year.
In other words, sentiment, for better or for worse, is finally taking on a life of its own, pushing up US markets (and in turn our own), despite mediocre to 'ok' earnings results. Of course, we'll need to see concrete improvement over the coming months to justify the optimism, and clearly there are are some headwinds out there if you really want to worry (Fed tapering, lower Chinese and Australian growth, Ukraine debt default etc.), however, for now, our general view remains unchanged - we're still at 8pm, on the 'Economic Clock' (a quaint measure, certainly, but a useful tool just the same) View Economic Clock Here Enjoy your weekend. Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Whether you have a superannuation, pension or managed fund, direct shares or property, what happens in China, the world's second largest economy, matters to your financial health. In this article AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver looks more closely at some of the 'noise' surrounding China these days, and whether this is something we should all be worried about. As usual, an easy to understand reader-friendly article from one of Australia's most respected Economists. Enjoy. Read article here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Sometimes being at one with a crowd can be nice, as safety in numbers can provide comfort. However, when crowds turn they can be dangerous - you might get trampled! In fact a wariness of crowds is essential to successful investing. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Since 1950 the average cyclical bull market in Australian shares lasted 48 months with a 126% gain. The current bull market has gone for 28 months with only a 37% gain. So where are we now in the cycle? Are we heading into a bear market already or is there more growth to come? Read on… Where are we now? Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Overnight the US Federal Reserve announced that it will begin carefully and slowly scaling back its massive stimulus program next month. It is the central bank's first step towards winding back the stimulus that has helped the US recover from its worst recession since the 1930s and a sign that the US economy is recovering.
In response, the US share market surged by almost 2% and at the time of writing, local markets are up by about 1.5%. Our local currency immediately dropped to 88.18 US cents but then quickly recovered to 89.45 US cents as investors digested the news. Most importantly, this should be viewed as good news. AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver discusses the implications for investors here. Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver looks discusses the potential consequences of a deflationary spiral versus rising inflation on your hip-pocket. Enjoy. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
If you're not sure if you need or want financial advice, perhaps thinking about doing it all yourself? Read on...
Read 7 Good Reasons Read Robert Kiyosaki's Blog
Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
China's growth cycle is stabilising and that's good news for Australia's economy, our markets, and possibly your super fund. AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver weighs in on recent fears over slowing Chinese growth with a typically calm, well balanced commentary. As always, his article is easy to read and not overly technical. Enjoy! Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Retail sales growth has been poor for four years now reflecting a combination of consumer caution, falling wealth, “excessive” interest rates, the strongly rising $A, surging electricity prices, slowing income growth and job insecurity. With some of these factors now fading or set to fade, retail sales growth is likely to pick-up a notch next year.
This should see growth pick up to around 4 to 5% pa from 2-3% over the past four years. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
With US Republicans and Democrats going head to head over budget and debt negotiations, the rest of the world looks on powerless and bemused. Beyond some of the media hysteria, in this article AMP Capital's Shane Oliver provides a balanced, sober look at the debt ceiling standoff and the likely outcome. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Earlier today, the US Congress agreed to end the partial government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling. Some positives...
1. While the run up to the 11th hour decision indicated that brinkmanship is alive and well in the US, the clear message is that at the end of the day the majority of US politicians will not let the US default on its debt servicing or broader spending commitments. As Winston Churchill once said "you can always rely on the American's to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else".
2. While the brinkmanship seen in the US on a semi-regular basis is not good for confidence, it is not all bad as it has let to a more balanced solution to US budget and debt problems than would have been the case if either side of politics had complete control.
3. The legislation for the temporary fix appears to include a rule that would allow the President to increase the debt ceiling unless Congress voted against it with a tow thirds majority in each chamber. Such an approach could allow the Republicans to vote against a debt ceiling increase in February but not stop it.
4. Finally, having been so badly burned over the last few weeks, Republicans may not be so willing to set off another Government shutdown and/or debt ceiling crisis early next year. Americans appear to have largely blamed them for the latest crisis and their favourable rating dropped to the lowest level in 20 years. With the mid-term Congressional elections coming up next year, they may not be prepared to risk a re-run or worse as it could mean they will lose control of the US House of Representatives. So another extreme showdown may end up being avoided next year.
With the worry list continuing to diminish, many believe that shares are likely to rally into year end with further gains next year, with some predicting that Australian shares could hit the 5500 mark by year end and 6000 by 30 June next year. While this may seem overly optimistic, an ASX at 6000 would still be about 13% below its all time high from 7 years earlier. Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been strong over the last three years, recovering from the GFC driven slump of 2008/09. So can these high returns be maintained or are we moving into a lower return phase? Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Last night, the US Federal Reserve decided that the US economy just isn't strong enough (yet) to begin tapering off its $85 billion per month bond buying program (ie printing money). At the time of writing, global markets have reacted predictably, pushing share markets to all time highs, and here in Australia to a five year high.
All eyes on November/December for the next instalment. In the meantime, enjoy the market bounce, but be careful out there. Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
On Thursday our time, the US Federal Reserve will likely make a statement about their quantitative easing program. Most are expecting the US central bank to begin 'tapering off' bond purchases (or in layman's terms - printing money) between now and November. While no one expects anything too extreme, this signifies a change in approach and needs to be considered by investors. If you're wondering what this all means (it's a technical area), please call me personally. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
One old adage about investment is that you buy a bunch of reliable stocks, stick them in your bottom drawer and forget about them. That ignores one pesky fact: Nothing stays the same. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
In this update, AMP Capital's Dr Shane Oliver takes a close look at where we are right now in the cycle, company profits and the risks and opportunities going forward. In a background of growing worry over Australia's economy, this is a timely and poignant article. Read more here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
Ask any of your friends what they wish they had more of in life and perhaps a few might say a faster car or bigger house - but what most people are really looking for is more time.
Investing your hard earned money in a smarter, more efficient manner not only allows you to spend more time focussing on a smaller selection of investments, it also allows you to spend more time on other, more important matters beyond the process of investing, like your health, your family, your friendships or your business.
Your Financial Planner is the same. By investing your superannuation or pension fund more efficiently, they'll have more time to help you achieve your goals, improve your retirement outcome, reduce your tax, protect your estate, and just generally help to control the controllable.
At Westmount, we believe that markets work, 'asset allocation' drives performance more than anything else and costs really do matter. In other words, it is infinitely possible to construct an effective investment portfolio (superannuation or otherwise) in a way that doesn't require constant monitoring, regular tinkering and an enormous fee to pull it all together. This has some obvious benefits for clients - lower costs, less stress, simplification and, yes, more time.
So if you believe that your life is a little more complicated than it should be, particularly in the area of investing or superannuation, don't just shrug your shoulders and accept the way things are. Instead, ask yourself, what else could I be doing with my precious time? And then call us to change the script for good. Read all about 'indexing' here Rick Maggi (Westmount. Financial Solutions.)
