Economics

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2018-19: A rough ride, but ok in the end...

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2018-19: A rough ride, but ok in the end...

The past financial year saw a roller coaster ride for investors. Share markets plunged into Christmas only to rebound over the last six months. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the investment outlook for 2019-20…

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Don't fight the Fed, ECB, RBA...

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Don't fight the Fed, ECB, RBA...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank are now looking to reduce interest rates, and here in Australia, we’re possibly looking at another two cuts as the RBA attempts to shore up the local economy. So how should investors respond?

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The trade war is back

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The trade war is back

After taking a back seat over the last six months as negotiations appeared to make progress the US/China trade war is back on with the President Trump – “tariff man” - ramping up tariffs on Chinese imports again and threatening more and China moving to retaliate. This note takes a simple Q & A approach to the key issues…

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What does a swing to the left mean for investors?

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What does a swing to the left mean for investors?

When I was in my early 20s I thought socialism might be the way to go. Two things happened. One I studied economics which led me to the conclusion that socialism/heavy state intervention doesn’t lead to the best outcome in terms of living standards for most…

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The Rough with the Smooth

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The Rough with the Smooth

A key to a successful investment experience is understanding how markets behave and developing the discipline to avoid rash decisions based on short time periods. The recent performance of the Australia and New Zealand share markets drives this home….

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Outlook for 2019...

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Outlook for 2019...

In this update, AMP’s Chief Economist, Shane Oliver, looks at what went wrong in 2018 (and its lessons), along with views of where 2019 is likely to go, and what to look out for. A straight forward, point by point report well worth a read…

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What happened??

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What happened??

Local share markets are now at a 22-month low. So what just happened and where are we headed?

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Are shares too expensive?

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Are shares too expensive?

Some commentators claim shares are way overvalued and so a crash is inevitable. As always, it’s a lot more complicated, but given the current turbulence in share markets it’s worth having a look at whether share markets are expensive or not as a guide to how vulnerable we are to further falls….

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A Question of Equilibrium

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A Question of Equilibrium

“Sellers were out in force on the market today after negative news on the economy.” It’s a common line
in TV finance reports. But have you ever wondered that if there are so many sellers out there, who is buying?