Event Driven Update

Why All The Share Market Volatility?

Why All The Share Market Volatility?

The return of inflation has been mentioned quite a lot recently as a reason why share markets are jumpy all of a sudden, by what has the return of inflation in the United States really got to do with share market volatility?

Share Pullback: 7 Reasons Not To Be Too Concerned

Share Pullback: 7 Reasons Not To Be Too Concerned

The pullback in shares seen over the last week or two has seen much coverage and generated much concern. This is understandable given the rapid falls in share markets seen on some days. From their highs to their recent lows, US and Japanese shares have fallen 10%, Eurozone shares have fallen 8%, Chinese shares have fallen 9% and Australian shares have lost 6%. This note looks at the issues for investors and puts the falls into context...

Sharemarkets sell-off, finally...

Sharemarkets sell-off, finally...

The long overdue market correction in global equities seems to have finally become a reality. Over the last two days global (and local) sharemarkets have shed about 6%, wiping out all of January’s gains with possibly more short term pain to come over the next week...

Interest rates unchanged

Interest rates unchanged

The Reserve Bank of Australia has today announced the official cash rate for February following its monthly board meeting. The RBA board has decided to keep the cash rate at 1.5 per cent, a move predicted by most industry experts...

Time for a share market correction?

Time for a share market correction?

Is this the beginning of a share market correction we had to have?

Industry Super Funds On Notice...

Industry Super Funds On Notice...

The Minister for Revenue and Financial Services, Kelly O’Dwyer, has made a thinly-veiled attack on advertising spending by Industry Superannuation Funds...

2018: A List of Lists

2018: A List of Lists

Although 2017 saw the usual worry list – around President Trump, elections in Europe, China, North Korea and Australian property – it was good for investors. Balanced super funds had returns around 10%, which is pretty good given inflation was around 2%. This year has started favourably but volatility may pick up as geopolitical threats loom a little larger and US inflation rises. This note provides a summary of key insights on the global investment outlook in simple dot point form...

US interest rates: The Fed hikes again

US interest rates: The Fed hikes again

The US Federal Reserve raised rates last night by another 0.25%, noting continuing strengthening in the US labour market and solid economic growth. The question now is where to from here? Will the Fed get more aggressive? Should investors be concerned?

Market Update: Bubbles, busts, and bitcoin

Market Update: Bubbles, busts, and bitcoin

The surge in bitcoin has attracted much interest. Over the last five years, it has soared from $US12 to over $US8000; this year it’s up 760%. Its enthusiasts see it as the currency of the future and increasingly as a way to instant riches with rapid price gains only reinforcing this view... 

Interest rates: US Fed begins to tighten

Interest rates: US Fed begins to tighten

The US Federal Reserve provided few surprises following its September meeting. While it left interest rates on hold, it confirmed that it will begin what it calls “balance sheet normalisation” next month and continued to signal its expectation that it will raise interest rates again in December and in the years ahead...

INTEREST RATES ON HOLD, GROWTH RETURNS...

INTEREST RATES ON HOLD, GROWTH RETURNS...

With spring traditionally a busy time for the real estate market and for rate moves, all eyes were on today’s Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting, where once again it was decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged...

THE GFC TEN YEARS ON

THE GFC TEN YEARS ON

It seems momentous things happen in years ending in seven. Well, at least in the last 50 years starting with the “summer of love” in 1967 and the introduction of the Chevrolet Camaro. But after that, it was downhill with Elvis leaving the building in 1977, the 1987 share market crash...

QUARTERLY HOUSING REPORT

QUARTERLY HOUSING REPORT

June 2017 marked the fifth anniversary of the current housing market growth phase. Over the second quarter of 2017, combined capital city dwelling values had increased by 0.8% which was their slowest quarterly growth rate since December 2015. The June quarter has historically shown...

THE THREAT OF WAR: IMPLICATIONS

THE THREAT OF WAR: IMPLICATIONS

The following note from Dr Shane Oliver of AMP Capital takes a look at the risks around war with North Korea. The key points are as follows:

 

Rates On Hold

Despite being under pressure from tepid economic growth, weak inflation and a surging Australian dollar, the Reserve Bank has left interest rates unchanged at its August board meeting.

The stance was all but universally expected, given RBA governor Philip Lowe made it clear last week that rates would not be moving for a considerable period of time.

The market had priced in a zero possibility of a rate change into its calculations.

The RBA last changed settings in August 2016, when it cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to the current historic low of 1.5 per cent.

Market Volatility

Three reasons not to be fussed...

For much of this year, there has been a surprising divergence between share and bond markets with shares up in response to improving growth and bond yields down in response to weak inflation.

Some feared that either bonds or equities had it wrong, but in a way it seemed like Goldilocks all over again – not too hot (ie benign inflation) but not too cold (ie good growth). However, the past week or so has seen a sharp back up in bond yields – mainly in response to several central banks warning of an eventual tightening in monetary policy.

Over the last week or so, 10 year bond yields rose 0.2-0.3% in the US, UK, Germany and Australia. This may not seem a lot but when bond yields are this low it actually is – German bond yields nearly doubled. This caused a bit of a wobble in share markets.

The big question is: are we seeing a resumption of the rising trend in bond yields that got underway last year and what does this mean for yield sensitive investments and shares? Since central banks are critical in all of this we’ll start there....  Read on

GLOBAL POLITICAL RISKS

It's now 12 months since the British voted to leave the European Union, an event that some saw as setting off a domino effect of other European countries looking to do the same. This was also followed by a messy election result in Australia, Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election, increasing concern around North Korea and a steady flow of terrorist attacks.

The combination of which seemed to highlight that geopolitics is now more important, and perhaps more threatening, for investors than had previously been the case. But while political developments have figured highly over the last year, the impact on markets has been benign. Since the Brexit vote, global shares are up 22% and Australian shares are up 13%.

So what gives? This note looks at the main issues. Read more here

RATES REMAIN ON HOLD

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to hold the cash rate at 1.5 per cent in June, following its board meeting today.

The official cash rate will remain unchanged at 1.5 per cent as a result of today's decision by the RBA.

The decision was widely anticipated, with the futures market pricing in a 92 per cent of no change to the cash rate at the close of trading on Friday.

Rick Maggi