What is the risk of a US recession?

The period since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has seemed unusual in the sense that periodic crises and post GFC caution prevented the global economy from overheating and excesses building, in turn preventing the return of the conventional economic cycle. Many of course concluded this was permanent and that inflation would never rise again (with talk of structural stagnation, the Amazon effect, etc). However, it’s becoming increasingly clear the global economy is moving out of its post GFC funk – with growth picking up and signs that inflation will too (led by the US) – and arguably returning to a more normal investment cycle. The pullback in shares and surge in volatility seen this month likely indicates an adjustment in investor expectations to reflect this. This note looks at what to watch. 

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