Where to from here?
The Reserve Bank of Australia has announced the outcome of its monthly board meeting, deciding to leave the official cash rate on hold at 2.5 per cent.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said he expected no change in the cash rate until the end of 2015.
"The RBA still believes that a period of stability in interest rates is the most prudent policy for the time being," Mr Oster said.
"While there are tentative signs of an improvement in household spending, they do not yet signal a sustained change in household and business conditions," he added. In the absence of any "major surprises", the cash rate is unlikely to rise until late 2015, Mr Oster said.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans noted that the November monetary policy meeting minutes were "slightly more dovish" than October's. "The growth outlook is a little less optimistic while there appears to be less hysteria around the potential risks associated with the housing market," Mr Evans said. "Indeed there is no implication of a substantial intervention by the authorities. The RBA is clearly in an ongoing ‘wait and see’ mode," he said.
It is also worth noting that in other quarters further interest rate cuts are being predicted for 2015. Deutsche Bank today went on the record predicting two 25 basis points cuts mid and later next year.
Our view at Westmount is that talk of interest rate cuts is premature at this point. Unless the Australian economy significantly deteriorates further, we expect the RBA to simply maintain current rates a little longer than previously expected. Of course, if rate cuts do occur, this would probably be a positive for shares and property, so it is critical to keep your portfolio diversified and flexible at all times.
Watch a full interest rate report from Macquarie here.
Rick Maggi Westmount Financial