Newsletter

A Question of Equilibrium

A Question of Equilibrium

“Sellers were out in force on the market today after negative news on the economy.” It’s a common line
in TV finance reports. But have you ever wondered that if there are so many sellers out there, who is buying?

Global Debt: Be alert, but not alarmed

Global Debt: Be alert, but not alarmed

As global interest rates bottom, concerns about rising inflation and interest rates, quite naturally, come to the fore, particularly in a time where global debt (country, corporate and personal debt) are an all time high. So as investors, retirees and superannuation members, how concerned should we be? AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver gives 7 reasons to be alert, but not alarmed…

Is China ok?

Is China ok?

It seems there is constant hand wringing about the risks around the Chinese economy with the common concerns being around unbalanced growth, debt, the property market, the exchange rate and capital flows and a “hard landing”…

9 COMMON INVESTMENT MISTAKES

9 COMMON INVESTMENT MISTAKES

FROM THE VAULT:

(Originally posted on 24 November 2016)

The 9 Habits of highly ineffective investors...

As the Trump rally continues, its important to stop, take a deep breath and think about potential pitfalls going forward as the fear of missing out and 'animal spirits' take centre stage.

Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong...

What is the risk of a US recession?

What is the risk of a US recession?

Was the 10% selloff the 'entree' of what's to come, or just a 10% correction?

Time for a share market correction?

Time for a share market correction?

Is this the beginning of a share market correction we had to have?

2018: A List of Lists

2018: A List of Lists

Although 2017 saw the usual worry list – around President Trump, elections in Europe, China, North Korea and Australian property – it was good for investors. Balanced super funds had returns around 10%, which is pretty good given inflation was around 2%. This year has started favourably but volatility may pick up as geopolitical threats loom a little larger and US inflation rises. This note provides a summary of key insights on the global investment outlook in simple dot point form...

Investing: Cautious optimism better for your health...

Investing: Cautious optimism better for your health...

At the start of last year, with global and Australian shares down around 20% from their April/May 2015 highs, the big worry was that the global economy was going back into recession and that there will be another Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Now, with share markets having had a strong run higher, it seems to have been replaced by worries that a crash is around the corner and this will give us the global recession and new GFC that we missed last year!

Market Update: Bubbles, busts, and bitcoin

Market Update: Bubbles, busts, and bitcoin

The surge in bitcoin has attracted much interest. Over the last five years, it has soared from $US12 to over $US8000; this year it’s up 760%. Its enthusiasts see it as the currency of the future and increasingly as a way to instant riches with rapid price gains only reinforcing this view... 

MORE GREAT INVESTMENT CHARTS

MORE GREAT INVESTMENT CHARTS

As Warren Buffett once said: “There seems to be a perverse human characteristic that makes easy things difficult.” This has particularly been the case with investing where complexity has multiplied with new products, new ways to access various investments, tax changes and new regulations, all with social media adding to the noise. But it’s really quite simple and this can be demonstrated in charts...

QUARTERLY HOUSING REPORT

QUARTERLY HOUSING REPORT

June 2017 marked the fifth anniversary of the current housing market growth phase. Over the second quarter of 2017, combined capital city dwelling values had increased by 0.8% which was their slowest quarterly growth rate since December 2015. The June quarter has historically shown...

THE THREAT OF WAR: IMPLICATIONS

THE THREAT OF WAR: IMPLICATIONS

The following note from Dr Shane Oliver of AMP Capital takes a look at the risks around war with North Korea. The key points are as follows:

 

5 GREAT INVESTMENT CHARTS

Investing is often seen as complicated. And this has been made worse over the years by the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices, regulations and rules around investing, the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets and the expanding ways available to access various investments.

But at its core, the basic principles of successful investing are simple. And one way to demonstrate that is in charts or pictures – after all, a picture tells a thousand words.

This note looks at five charts I find useful in understanding investing. Check back soon as another 5 charts are coming your way.

Read on here.

2016/17 Review

The past financial year turned out far better for investors than had been feared a year ago. This was despite a lengthy list of things to worry about: starting with the Brexit vote and a messy election outcome in Australia both just before the financial year started; concerns about global growth, profits and deflation a year ago; Donald Trump being elected President in the US with some predicting a debilitating global trade war as a result; various elections across Europe feared to see populists gain power; the US Federal Reserve resuming interest rate hikes; North Korea stepping up its missile tests; China moving to put the brakes on its economy amidst ever present concern about its debt levels; and messy growth in Australia along with perennial fears of a property crash and banking crisis.

Predictions of some sort of global financial crisis in 2016 were all the rage. But the last financial year provided a classic reminder to investors to turn down the noise on all the events swirling around investment markets and associated predictions of disaster, and how, when the crowd is negative, things can surprise for the better. But will returns remain reasonable? After reviewing the returns of the last financial year, this note looks at the investment outlook for the 2017-18 financial year.

Read more here

Trump Trade or Trump Bump?

Around May each year I normally get a bit wary about the risks of a pullback in shares. It seems the old saying “sell in May and go away...” is permanently stuck in my mind. And of course shares have had a great run since their global growth scare “bear market” lows in February last year to their recent highs with global shares up 31% and Australian shares up 25%, and both saw good gains year to date to their recent highs of 7% and 5% respectively. Meanwhile, although there have been several calls this year that the so-called “Trump trade” – anticipation of his pro-business policies that supposedly drove the surge in shares since the US election – is over, the risks have intensified lately given the issues around Trump, the FBI and Russia with some fearing the Trump trade is now set to reverse. This note looks at the main issues. Read more